Tradelog: sold PNB, failed 3rd pennant formation
(PNB Chart as of May 17, 2009)Today, I decided to exit and take profit on my PNB @ 22.75 (+20%).
I admit I should have sold @ 25.5, which is my maximum target.
I got in @ 17.25 when PNB broke from its 2nd pennant last May 4, 2009. (Reference: Tradelog: bought PNB on Pennant/Flag breakout)
To determine my target price, I measured the flag pole and got the maximum target price @ 25.50. But then, I also drew a Fibonacci retracement level from its previous high @ 29 and previous low (start of trending up) @ 9.70 and got the following target prices based on the retracement levels: 50% - 19.25; 61.8% - 21.50; 78.8% - 24.75.
This has been an exciting ride I could say. After that pennant breakout, my initial target price is @ 19.25, which is the 50% retracement level. But, when it gapped up the next day with huge volume and reached the 19.25 target price, I decided to hold on to my PNB. Then, I place my next target price @ 21.50, which is the 61.8% retracement level.
The next few days, volume is still huge and it seems to me that PNB is still trending up stronger. It even went pass the 21.50 target price that I've set. So, I decided to place my next target price @ 25.50.
Then, it reached 25.50 so I told myself to sell but I saw the volume. So, I decided to hold. After reaching 26, it began to go down, my chart study shows that this might be another pennant formation. And, if this breakout from its 3rd pennant formation, then the target price will be @ 37.50!
Well, today there's a massive sellout. It seems there is no 3rd pennant formation. So, I decided to sell and protect my profit.
I admit I should have sold @ 25.5, which is my maximum target.
I got in @ 17.25 when PNB broke from its 2nd pennant last May 4, 2009. (Reference: Tradelog: bought PNB on Pennant/Flag breakout)
To determine my target price, I measured the flag pole and got the maximum target price @ 25.50. But then, I also drew a Fibonacci retracement level from its previous high @ 29 and previous low (start of trending up) @ 9.70 and got the following target prices based on the retracement levels: 50% - 19.25; 61.8% - 21.50; 78.8% - 24.75.
This has been an exciting ride I could say. After that pennant breakout, my initial target price is @ 19.25, which is the 50% retracement level. But, when it gapped up the next day with huge volume and reached the 19.25 target price, I decided to hold on to my PNB. Then, I place my next target price @ 21.50, which is the 61.8% retracement level.
The next few days, volume is still huge and it seems to me that PNB is still trending up stronger. It even went pass the 21.50 target price that I've set. So, I decided to place my next target price @ 25.50.
Then, it reached 25.50 so I told myself to sell but I saw the volume. So, I decided to hold. After reaching 26, it began to go down, my chart study shows that this might be another pennant formation. And, if this breakout from its 3rd pennant formation, then the target price will be @ 37.50!
Well, today there's a massive sellout. It seems there is no 3rd pennant formation. So, I decided to sell and protect my profit.
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